Democratic Candidates Examined
The Iowa Caucus has come and gone, and John Kerry (D-France) managed an impressive come-from-behind victory in the Hawkeye State. Whether or not Kerry can continue his momentum is anyone's guess, but there is no denying that the outcome put a serious dent in Howard Dean's presidential aspirations.
Kerry overcame a double-digit deficit to defeat the heavily favored Dean. He also overcame a major flip flop: He voted in favor of the resolution authorizing President Bush to go to war in Iraq. However, when it became apparent that the war was unpopular among his Democratic base, he altered his opinion accordingly, and spent the next several months trying to convince us he "didn't really mean it." In the process, he mapped out enough positions on the matter to make Jenna Jameson proud.
Howard Dean's Iowa rallying cry, which looked more like something you'd see on WWE Smackdown rather than something you'd witness from a serious presidential candidate, may have done more harm to his candidacy than his poor showing in Iowa. The fact that it has been played over and over on the news also signals that the media no longer romanticize about Dean's candidacy. Perhaps they realize he probably wouldn't fare very well in the general election. Dean isn't finished yet, but New Hampshire may very well be his last stand.
If Howard Dean fails to win the nomination, it will prove endorsements mean little in politics. Dean had the support of Al Gore, Bill Bradley, and Tom Harkin, but they did nothing to help the former Vermont governor's fortunes. If Dean's toilet-esque downward spiral continues, it will be a serious blow to Gore's future political ambitions, who probably was banking on a spot in the Dean Administration, or at least hoping to capture most of Dean's supporters for a future presidential run.
No one is more disappointed by Dean's implosion (except, perhaps, for President Bush) than Gen. Wesley Clark, who wanted to emerge as the anti-Dean candidate. Dean's far-left rhetoric and inexperience in national security matters would have contrasted well with the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Being the anti-Kerry candidate won't help Clark all that much.
Though Dean was often ridiculed for his gaffes, Gen. Clark has more than a fair share of his own. Clark initially supported regime change in Iraq, writing just after Coalition forces took Baghdad, "President Bush and Tony Blair should be proud of their resolve in the face of so much doubt." He's since done a one-eighty, denouncing the President at every opportunity. Such is life in politics. He does have the support of Michael Moore though, so he can't be taken lightly.
One of the surprises of Iowa is North Carolina Senator John Edwards. Edwards ran a mostly positive campaign as a centrist, and finished a solid second. If he can win in South Carolina, the primary could become a Kerry/Edwards race.
Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt finished fourth in Iowa, a disappointing showing for a candidate from a neighboring state, and withdrew from the race. For years, Gephardt has been synonymous with labor unions. Thus his poor showing may have significant implications for organized labor, and it's influence on politics. The union vote has been declining, and, even more ominous for Democrats, it is estimated that 40% of union members vote Republican. Gephart's ilk may soon have to find a new base.
Joseph Lieberman didn't even compete in Iowa. Despite being the candidate who would stand the best chance of defeating President Bush, his campaign has yet to catch fire. His defense of his support for Operation Iraqi Freedom has been as eloquent as they come. Unfortunately, his principled stand on this matter may be his undoing among the mostly liberal voters in the Democratic Primary. No doubt the White House is happy about this.
Little really needs to be said about Dennis Kucinich and the Reverend Al Sharpton. The good reverend, who provides comic relief to otherwise mundane Democratic debates, could pick up double digits in South Carolina. But he has about as much chance of winning the Democratic nomination as Rush Limbaugh (who, incidently, has endorsed him in the primary). Ditto for vegan Dennis Kucinich, who has gained the most recognition by being endorsed by Country legend Willie Nelson, and for his "win a date with Kucinich" gimmick. If nothing else, Kucinich does prove that it's possible to be even more left-wing than Howard Dean.
Analyzing the results of primaries and making predictions keeps pundits employed, but no one really knows why certain candidates fare well and others don't. They may offer logical explanations, but they're only guessing. How and why elections happen as they do is a mystery to which no one knows the answer.
It's also what makes the political season so much fun.
- John Brown is a senior in political science and history at the University of Tennessee @ Knoxville. He can be reached at johnnyb325@aol.com or by visiting www.johnnorrisbrown.com. This column originally ran in the January 29, 2004 edition of The Daily Beacon, available here