The first debate has passed, and most pundits are in agreement that John Kerry won. He won, they say, because he appeared more poised, more charismatic, and more affable. Superficial qualities these may be, they are nonetheless very important to voters. Looking good and being sure in one’s self creates confidence in a candidate, so naturally candidates try to achieve these qualities, sometimes to the point of lunacy. We can’t blame them for this, however. At the end of the day, it’s our own fault. As Frank Bruni once remarked, “Modern politics isn't just superficial because the politicians make it so. It is superficial because the voters let it be." We have certainly done this to the extreme in recent years.
President Bush may have looked angry and annoyed throughout most of the debate, but that is authentic. No doubt he was annoyed and angry, as was John Kerry. These two men have been trashing each other’s reputations for months now, so do you really think Bush and Kerry do not hate each other? Was there anything more fake than their handshake at the beginning?
John Kerry apparently looked thoughtful and prepared, cool and collected. He took notes! He was taller! But, in fairness, he did look better than Bush, and least from a style point of view.
I personally did not pay that much attention to the debate. It just did not interest me all that much. I know who I am going to vote for and ninety minutes of verbal warfare is not going to change my mind. Besides, I know we aren’t going to hear anything new from either candidate. Call me cynical, but I think we all knew what was going to be said before the debate even started, and that all we would get would be various repackaged spin from both sides. Anyone expecting this was not disappointed. The debates would be much better and more authentic if they followed the words that Chris Matthews used as a title of his book: “Now, Let Me Tell You What I Really Think.”
Following the debate, we were treated to various campaign surrogates hitting all the networks and explaining to us why their candidate won, and why the other guy was horrible, and why we’re total idiots if we disagree. Again, nothing we did not already expect. Anytime one of these guys comes on TV, I recommend changing the channel, regardless of the candidate they are spewing the praises of.
Still, there is something to be said for having the candidates meet on a stage and truly debate the issues. But we should all remember that style is infinitely more important than substance. In every election, people have said that it was the most important in recent history. The only difference is that this time it really is.
This election may be unique in one way: there are very few undecided voters. Most are already locked into supporting their guy, and will not be swayed by debates. The debates may give a momentary “bounce,” but by election day the polls will show it close, or even in a dead heat, once again. It’s always possible that there will be a 1984 style landslide, but it’s not likely. Much more realistic is a 2000 style squeaker.
You may have heard the latest Newsweek poll that shows Kerry with a slight lead. Remember, it was this same poll that said Bush led by 11 points just a few weeks ago. Has the actual number varied that much? Not likely. In reality, the race has always ranged from a dead heat, to a slight lead for either candidate. This is a trend that will, in all likelihood, continue until November 2. The media likes a horserace because it makes the news more exciting. They should be thrilled.
If you’ve ever wondered if your vote really matters, then this election along with the 2000 election should provide you with the answer. If you’re undecided, look beyond style in the candidates, and see who offers the most substance. Don’t vote for someone just because someone else tells you to (not even me). Remember that Warren G. Harding was a handsome, charismatic fellow, and that Thomas Jefferson was a squeaky voiced aristocrat. Who do you think was the better president?
The Founders wanted competitive elections, and it looks very much like we are going to get just that in November. The power is in our hands.
John Brown (www.johnnorrisbrown.com) is a senior in political science and history at the University of Tennessee @ Knoxville. Contact him at johnnyb325@aol.com. This column originally appeared in the October 5, 2004 edition of The Daily Beacon entitled "First debate lacks real substance ."